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Tech Trade 2025

The New Cold War is Fought with Microchips, Not Tariffs

Semiconductor Policy Research
August 27, 2025
9 min read

The US–China tariff era has given way to something more targeted and strategic: export controls on chips, AI acceleration, and EV batteries; licensing regimes; and entity lists that operate like invisible tariffs. In 2025, compliance is strategy.

What Changed Since the 2018–2022 Tariff Wars

Broad tariffs on consumer goods have largely stabilized, but strategic controls on high-technology inputs expanded. The 2025 landscape is dominated by advanced lithography access rules, AI accelerator thresholds, and inbound/outbound investment screening—each adding friction equivalent to a tariff, but with far more supply-chain specificity.

Invisible Tariffs: Controls, Lists, and Licenses

Entity lists, end-use restrictions, and complex licensing are now the binding constraint. For executives, these are not "legal footnotes"—they are cost drivers and lead-time risks that determine factory location, vendor selection, and buffer stock.

Signal in the 2025 Data

  • High-tech US–China component trade shows pressure, while flows to Vietnam, Mexico, and India rise.
  • OEMs redesign BOMs to use controllable subcomponents, reducing export-control exposure.
  • Multi-sourcing for AI/ML compute and battery cells replaces single-region dependencies.

Case Study: A Tier-1 Electronics Supplier (2024–2025)

A global Tier-1 split assembly across Malaysia and Mexico, shifted tooling to avoid restricted subassemblies, and centralized licensing expertise. Result: more resilient lead times and improved customer delivery SLAs under the new rules.

Executive Playbook

  • Map export-control exposure for each SKU and vendor tier.
  • Stand up an internal licensing desk with quarterly drills.
  • Use near-shore capacity for buffer and surge production.
  • Align finance with compliance to price risk into contracts.

Remova helps manufacturers and technology firms reduce competitive exposure by minimizing public trade-data signals and hardening supply chain privacy. Explore our Protection Plans to safeguard customer lists, supplier maps, and shipment metadata while you re-architect for 2025.

The Bottom Line

The future of global trade is technological sovereignty. Treat export controls and licensing as first-order strategy inputs—on par with cost, quality, and delivery.

The New Cold War is Fought with Microchips, Not Tariffs (2025) — Remova.org